The second game of the 2023 NFL preseason kicks off Thursday at Gillette Stadium as the New England Patriots host the Houston Texans as a 3.5-point home dog, with a total of 36.5.
NFL odds moved after bettors steamed the Texans once news that rookie quarterback CJ Stroud will start, as will plenty of the other Houston starters. However, Thursday should see plenty of competent QB play on both sides while the Pats could be showing off duel-threat signal-caller Malik Cunningham as well — making that Over look very good at its current low number
Here are my free NFL picks and predictions for the Texans vs. Patriots.
Texans vs Patriots odds
Texans vs Patriots predictions
Bettors have seen this total drop two points from 38.5 to 36.5, but with the potential of experienced quarterback play and some playmaking ability from a pair of rookies, the Over is looking like my favorite play in Thursday night’s preseason action at Gillette Stadium.
Second-overall pick CJ Stroud will start and head coach DeMeco Ryans said the starters will also get some run. It’s unsure how many series Stroud will see, but with him and Davis Mills sharing first-team snaps in practice, it could be an extended look as Ryans builds a QB competition in his first camp as a head coach.
Stroud seeing multiple series would be great for the Over 36.5 as he is the most athletic signal-caller on either side, but it’s the experience on each team that has me predicting some later competent QB play which isn’t always the case in the preseason.
The only other QB on the Texans’ 90-man roster is 35-year-old Case Keenum, but this is still a QB who is 68-for-97 (70%) for 622 yards, 2 TDs, and 4 INTs over his last two years in the preseason over six games. Bettors can do a lot worse than Keenum closing out a game vs. the New England Patriots’ threes and fours late in the game.
Bill Belichick told reporters that his most inexperienced players will get the most snaps Thursday and didn’t mention if Mac Jones will even see the field. Even if Jones sits, I still like this Over 36.5.
The Pats have Bailey Zappe and Trace McSorley as the two QBs who will likely see all the early work. These are two signal callers with 10 NFL starts between them. Zappe went 45-for-71 (63%) for 462 yards, a score, and three picks in his first taste of preseason last year, while McSorley has six preseason starts to his name and has thrown for five TDs to five INTs. He also has nine NFL starts under his belt.
However, all preseason bettors know that things tend to come down to the last rotation, and if the Pats are giving Malik Cunningham the late work, he could move the ball himself.
Cunningham was a 5-year QB out of Lousvile who threw for 70 TDs while also rushing for 50 more. He is the highest-paid undrafted free agent in New England’s history ($200,000 guaranteed) and got plenty of reps at QB this week. His rushing ability alone is enough to get me excited as fourth-quarter preseason football can be downright ugly in the passing game.
Malik Cunningham is getting the most extensive work at QB he’s had all offseasonHad a nice throw on the run and looks dangerous in the open field
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) August 7, 2023
With some very competent and experienced QB depth on both sides, decent playing conditions at Gillette Stadium, and the possibility of Cunningham’s duel-threat skills being on display vs. the Houston threes and fours, I’m hitting the Over which I feel I’m getting at the lowest number.
My best bet: Over 36.5 (-110 at bet365)
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